While ND remains clearly ahead, several surveys place the party well below levels associated with parliamentary majority, amid growing public concern over inflation, institutional issues, the OPEKEPE affair and broader cost-of-living pressures.
Attention is increasingly shifting toward the possibility of political realignment on the opposition side. PASOK continues to poll in the low double digits, while speculation intensifies around a potential return by former prime minister Alexis Tsipras through a new political formation. At the same time, Maria Karystianou is expected to formally unveil her own political movement later this month in Thessaloniki, following months of public visibility linked to the Tempi rail disaster.
Within that context, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis opens New Democracy’s 16th congress amid growing debate over whether elections could eventually be brought forward to autumn 2026. The congress is widely viewed as an effort to reactivate the party machinery, reinforce unity and begin shaping the governing party’s electoral narrative through 2030. Simultaneously, the government is preparing the next major package of economic measures expected at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), including possible tax cuts, social security contribution reductions and measures aimed at strengthening disposable income.
On the foreign policy front, Athens is increasingly concerned about renewed Turkish assertiveness in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean following the leak of a proposed Turkish “Blue Homeland Law,” expected to be debated in Ankara in early June. The legislation would formally codify Turkish maritime claims and “gray zone” theories in the Aegean, reviving disputes Greece considers settled under international law. Concerns were reinforced this week after a Turkish gunboat approached the Ocean Link vessel, which was laying fiber-optic cable for Cosmote between Astypalaia and Kos, prompting intervention by Greek naval units.
Athens has also escalated diplomatic pressure on Kyiv after the discovery of a suspected Ukrainian naval drone near Lefkada island (Ionian Sea). Greek officials believe the device may have been intended for operations against Russian shipping in the Mediterranean, prompting concerns over any spillover of the Black Sea conflict into the Eastern Mediterranean. Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis stressed that Greece “will not tolerate” the transformation of the Mediterranean into a theater of military operations.
At the European level, Mitsotakis used his speech at the Charlemagne Prize ceremony honoring Mario Draghi in Aachen to advocate for greater European strategic autonomy in defense, energy, industrial supply chains and critical technologies. Meanwhile, Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides suggested that the UN may launch a renewed effort to resolve the Cyprus issue before the end of Antonio Guterres’ term.
Migration pressures also increased again in April, according to Hellenic Coast Guard data, as the government moves ahead with legislation implementing the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, aimed at accelerating asylum screening and deportation procedures. Separately, Greece defused a months-long standoff with the European Public Prosecutor’s Office after renewing the mandates of prosecutors handling sensitive EU fraud investigations, including the OPEKEPE case.
Economically, the picture remains mixed. OECD data showed Greece recorded the strongest increase in real household disposable income among OECD economies in Q4 2025, driven by rising employment and wages. However, inflation accelerated sharply to 5.4% in April, with steep increases in fuel, heating oil and essential food products continuing to pressure household budgets.
Meanwhile, the Greek banking sector continues to expand aggressively into wealth management, insurance and non-banking financial activities through a new wave of acquisitions, supported by strong profitability and expectations linked to the anticipated integration of the Athens Stock Exchange into Euronext.
Finally, Greece introduced a new regulatory framework governing the use of Artificial Intelligence in schools, establishing safeguards against misinformation and abusive AI use, while long-range forecasts suggest Greece and Southeastern Europe are likely to experience a warmer-than-normal June, reinforcing concerns over heatwaves and wildfire risks ahead of the summer season.
*Written from Athens. Focused on power, institutions and political behavior — beyond the headlines.